The Conflict Between India and Pakistan – War Over Water and With Water

This April and May, following the terrorist attack in Pahalgam (Kashmir, India), tensions between the two nuclear powers, India and Pakistan, escalated more severely than ever before. At first glance, the conflict appears to be a mix of religious and territorial disputes, but behind the scenes, water has been one of the primary drivers of renewed hostility. What is the root of this conflict? Where is it headed? What are its implications for Europe? And how has climate change worsened the problem? We seek answers to these questions while also looking at similar tensions worldwide.

The India-Pakistan Conflict

It is a recurring theme that global warming will lead to future wars over water, making it a primary source of conflict. The India-Pakistan dispute originated from the geographical boundaries drawn when these countries gained independence from the British Empire. Boundaries that ignored geostrategic realities, such as the fact that the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers, which supply Pakistan’s water, all originate from the Indian territory. (Figure 1.) To understand the situation, we must go back to 1947. After the partition of British India, the Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir chose independence and later accession to India, despite protests from the region’s Muslim-majority, pro-Pakistan population. This eventually led to war between the two countries, resulting in the disputed territory being divided between India, Pakistan (and a small part belonging to China).¹

Figure 1. The rivers of India and Pakistan (Indus, Chenab, Jhelum)²

In the following decade, India repeatedly restricted the rivers, disrupting Pakistan’s irrigation systems and agriculture. After a decade of negotiations mediated by the World Bank, the Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960, regulating water usage. The treaty established rules for infrastructure projects, including restrictions on dam constructions by India. However, in recent years, India has begun building multiple hydroelectric plants and reservoirs.³

These rivers supply 90% of Pakistan’s water needs, playing a crucial role in agriculture, which accounts for 24% of Pakistan’s GDP and provides work for nearly half its population.⁴ The treaty survived three wars and six decades of hostility, but in recent weeks, it has come dangerously close to collapse.

The region has long struggled with terrorism. 80-90% of Kashmir’s Muslim-majority population desires independence, which Hindu-majority India opposes.⁵ Beyond religious and geopolitical tensions, climate policy also plays a role. Due to climate change, the Indus’ water flow has decreased. About two-thirds of the river’s water comes from glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya range, which have shrunk over the past decade. The remaining flow depends on seasonal monsoon rains, which have become increasingly unpredictable due to climate change, leading to alternating droughts and floods.⁶

Another issue stems from the treaty itself, which only regulates surface water, not groundwater extraction. Wells have significantly reduced water flow.⁷ In recent years, India has repeatedly called for renegotiating the treaty, citing stalled hydroelectric projects and the need for new reservoirs due to climate change however Pakistan opposes both these projects and renegotiation of the treaty.⁸ India argues that Pakistan’s water crisis results from its inefficient water management. The conflict reignited under Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. After the 2016 Uri terrorist attack, Modi declared, “Blood and water can’t flow together” implying that water could be used as a weapon in retaliation.⁹

The ongoing conflict between Pakistan and India represents a serious concern for Europe, with multiple compelling reasons why renewed escalation should be prevented. Firstly, China's trade flows under the Belt and Road Initiative partially depend on overland connections through Xinjiang and Pakistan, culminating at Gwadar Port. Any disruption to this route would reduce trade volumes to Europe, likely triggering price increases.¹⁰ Simultaneously, India plays a crucial but discreet role in helping Western nations circumvent sanctions on Russian oil. Russian crude gets refined and relabeled in India before being exported to European markets.¹¹ A resurgence or expansion of the India-Pakistan conflict could potentially escalate into a regional confrontation, which - given Iran's proximity - might further drive up energy prices. Perhaps most concerning is the migration pressure. India, with its 1.419 billion population (the world's largest), and Pakistan, ranking fifth globally with 257 million inhabitants, already contribute significantly to migration flows. Currently, 20,000-30,000 Pakistani economic migrants arrive in the EU annually. A full-scale war would likely cause illegal migration numbers to surge dramatically, placing additional strain on EU border security, particularly along the Balkan route. (Figure 2.)

Figure 2. Transit route of migrants from Pakistan to Europe¹²

Types of Water Wars

The most obvious and common type of water war is withholding water from downstream regions in the river's flow path. This can be achieved by diverting the river or constructing dams and reservoirs. While India currently lacks the infrastructure to completely block its rivers from flowing into Pakistan, this does not mean it cannot inflict severe damage on Pakistani agriculture by restricting water flow during dry seasons. India has already begun applying this kind of pressure on the Chenab River using the Baglihar Dam. The flip side of this tactic is intentional flooding, for which India also has the means. Artificial floods during monsoon seasons can cause heavy damage to Pakistan's infrastructure, a method that according to Pakistani claims, India has already employed in the past.¹³

A specialized form of water withholding is draining wetlands, which has not been observed in the India-Pakistan conflict but has been used elsewhere. In 1990-91, Saddam Hussein's regime weaponized this method as a form of retaliation and ecocide against the Marsh Arabs, destroying their habitat and ultimately forcing the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people.¹⁴

Water Conflicts Around the World

Historically, there are numerous examples of struggles over water and its military application. These include Turkey's restrictions on the flow of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers towards Iraq and Syria since the 1980s, or the Uzbek-Tajik conflict over the Fergana Valley following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. However, one of the most current conflicts is the water dispute between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, which dates back to the 1950s. During the post-colonial territorial divisions and agreements, Ethiopia was largely excluded from the regulation of Blue Nile water usage, despite the fact that 85% of the river originates in this country. Most of Ethiopia's population still lives without electricity today, and the country hopes to solve this problem by building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) hydroelectric plant. However, Egypt and Sudan oppose this project due to fears of reduced water flow and potential droughts, even threatening military intervention to prevent it.¹⁵ The problem is further exacerbated by the fact that climate change has already caused the Nile to lose 5-8% of its water volume in recent decades, with an additional 15% reduction expected by 2050. This water conflict has already become entangled in the Sudanese civil war, where Egypt supports the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), while Ethiopia backs the rebel group ’Rapid Support Forces’ (RSF).¹⁶

In close proximity to us is the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, specifically Ukraine's closure of the North Crimean Canal following Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea. The Ukrainians built a dam on the canal, cutting off the breakaway region from 85% of its water supply. It was no coincidence that Russian forces seized this strategic dam site on the first day of the 2022 war outbreak, and two days later blew up the dam that was blocking Crimea's water supply.¹⁷ Sadly, water became a weapon once again in the Ukrainian-Russian war. On June 26, 2023, the explosion of the Kakhovka Reservoir dam led to the complete drying up of the reservoir, severe flooding in downstream areas, ecological and economic damage, and numerous deaths - the responsible parties still haven't been identified with absolute certainty.¹⁸

Finally, there is an EU-internal conflict kept on the surface by climate change. While relations between Portugal and Spain are fundamentally excellent, access to water creates tension here as well. Spain has been continuously violating the 1998 Albufeira Convention, which regulates water sharing and levels of the Douro, Tagus and Guadiana rivers between the two countries, citing drought conditions.^19,20 Among these, the Tagus River, which originates in Spain and flows through Portugal before emptying into the Atlantic Ocean, has been threatened by drought for years, thus endangering not only numerous Spanish and Portuguese agricultural and nature conservation areas but also Lisbon's water supply. According to the Convention, Spain is required to transfer a specified amount of water to Portugal, but it is not always able or willing to do so. In response to the critical water situation, Spain adopted a €2.2 billion development plan in 2023 due to the worsening consequences of climate change, yet relations between the two countries remain periodically strained.²¹ The continuous water shortages, which sometimes lead to water rationing and serious agricultural damage, are slowly threatening to cause permanent ecological harm.²²

Unfortunately, the EU makes no real effort to regulate Spain, the organization's fifth largest economy. Violations of the water agreement with Portugal have been ongoing for years, and water diversion already starts in the Tagus-Segura irrigation system in Guadalajara province (Central Spain).²³ The current leadership of Guadalajara is left-wing (PSOE), under whose administration illegal strawberry farms were established along on another section of the river in Andalusia (Southern Spain), dating back to the 2000-2010s.²⁴ However, the Union only launched an investigation after the 2018 right-wing takeover in Andalusia, and from 2021 onwards specifically targeted criticism at the Andalusian illegal strawberry farms.²⁵ The right wing argues for maintaining the decades-old farms, protecting farmers' interests, while the left wing, which showed no interest in this environmental issue during its administration, has now begun to fiercely criticize it. This perhaps also highlights the Union's double standards (not just) in climate matters.

Most conflicts arise from the sharing of transboundary waters, which are only exacerbated by climate change-induced droughts, while international treaties are becoming increasingly ineffective in managing these problems. Water is no longer just an indispensable necessity, but also a strategic energy resource, raw material and weapon. In the India-Pakistan conflict, weapons may be temporarily silent, but they have not fallen permanently silent - it's only a matter of time before tensions flare up again, and both sides are prepared for this. Negotiations on the Indus Water Treaty began on May 14, 2025 - so far without results - which will be a pivotal point for the future of the region. The solution to worsening water shortages lies in more efficient water collection, retention and usage systems, but their implementation requires significant government assistance and planning. Unresolved disputes and worsening droughts will lead to famines, new wars and mass migrations, which is why solving these tensions must be considered a global objective.

References

1. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/5/2/pahalgam-attack-a-simple-guide-to-the-kashmir-conflict

2. https://iasbaba.com/2023/02/indus-waters-treaty-3/

3. https://theconversation.com/tensions-over-kashmir-and-a-warming-planet-have-placed-the-indus-waters-treaty-on-life-support-244699

4. https://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/agriculture-statistics

5. https://www.reuters.com/article/economy/87-pct-in-kashmir-valley-want-independence-poll-idUSDEL291796/

6. https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/14/1669/2010/

7. https://wwfasia.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/irbm_2013.pdf

8. https://theprint.in/diplomacy/india-proposes-15-july-meeting-to-renegotiate-indus-waters-treaty-pakistan-yet-to-respond/1628579/

9. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/blood-and-water-cant-flow-together-pm-narendra-modi-gets-tough-on-indus-treaty/articleshow/54534135.cms

10. https://multimedia.scmp.com/news/china/article/One-Belt-One-Road/pakistan.html

11. https://www.nzz.ch/english/data-suggests-russian-oil-is-reaching-eu-via-india-ld.1864325