The European Parliamentary election has concluded, resulting in the collapse of the French and Belgian governments and leaving the German "traffic light" (Ampel) coalition gasping for air. How can the European election have such an impact on domestic party politics? Because the losers, the Greens (-29.7%) and the Progressives (-26.8%), tried to push their ambitious but unpopular measures both at the national level and under the guise of the EU.
Following the Paris Agreement, the European Union clearly committed to phasing out fossil fuels. The fifth energy package, titled "Delivering the European Green Deal," was published on July 14, 2021, aiming to further elevate the EU's energy ambitions and forcefully achieve the 2050 climate neutrality target. The implementation package, "Fit for 55!," introduced several climate policy measures that mainly placed the burden of climate change on the public, with benefits that are highly questionable. This approach led European decision-making to fall between two stools.
Center-right parties, and even socialists, prefer a less painful technological transition that doesn't excessively burden the public. As a result of this new direction, nuclear energy could be included in Europe's green taxonomy, providing a proven and effective way to ensure climate-neutral energy production. The Green transition is now appearing as a viable path across the political spectrum, while the Greens doubled down on radical solutions, pushing their implementation from the national level to the EU. The extremity of their proposals isn't surprising, as single-issue groups must continuously escalate their rhetoric to maintain support from affluent urban youth.
In Germany, the Greens secured 11.9% of the votes, down from a record 20.5% in 2019. A public opinion poll suggests that the importance of climate change is rated lower across all age groups in 2024 than in 2019. Nevertheless, "concern about climate change" remains the second most significant issue for Germans, so this doesn't explain the decline. Since the last EP election in 2019, voters' concerns about rising crime, the spread of Islam, and the influx of immigrants have increased significantly. Additionally, many fear that excessive and forced greening will become a significant burden in the near future.
The controversial heating law passed by the Bundestag, effective from 2024, essentially only accepts heat pumps as the sole heating method, and a total ban on natural gas heating looms within a few years. This hampers young people's chances of acquiring homes and raises rental costs. Electric cars and car-sharing startups offer solutions for various scenarios but are often
inaccessible to young or rural populations. This explains why the Greens were the most popular party among 18-24-year-olds in 2019, whereas now it's the AfD.
In 2023, warning signs emerged for the Greens in Germany. The Federal Ministry for the Environment's 2023 survey ("Future? Ask the Youth! – 2023") revealed that under-30s felt climate activists caused excessive panic with extreme actions, alienating voters from green parties. Over 60% of respondents believed climate change should be addressed with reasonable and logical methods, advocating for dialogue between politicians and the public. More than half of the youth felt Germany's green and climate policies were irrational.
Similar trends are seen in Austria. The Greens garnered nearly 80% of their votes from Vienna, with their support virtually disappearing in most provinces. In the Scandinavian region, climate change remains a significant voting issue. Former green-tinged governments in Denmark, Sweden, and Finland introduced strict climate laws between 2020 and 2022, which new governments maintained even after the Greens moved to the opposition.
European voters have sent a warning to politicians. Across Europe, voters are turning to parties that refuse to sacrifice today's economic well-being for a rushed and costly path to net-zero emissions. Changes in security preferences also contribute significantly to the Greens' decline. Voters increasingly prefer parties that effectively address security challenges.
This serves as a warning to Brussels to back away from its unilateral green and overly mitigation-focused programs that ignore public and economic interests. It could also be a cautionary tale for American Democrats regarding their green policies.
